A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
